세계경제 동향(World Economic Outlook)
	IMF
	text.pdf
	°æÁ¦Åë»ó¿¬±¸¼¾ÅÍ / °æÁ¦¼ºÀå
	Âü°íÀÚ·á
	Á¤Ã¥º¸°í¼­
	IMF
	2008/04/01
Assumptions and Conventions Preface Foreword Executive Summary Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies Overview of Recent Developments and Prospects: Divergence but Not Decoupling Financial Market Turbulence: Rocky Ride for the Advanced Economies Can Emerging and Developing Economies Decouple? Outlook and Risks for the Global Economy Policy Challenges in a Multipolar World Appendix 1.1. Implications of New PPP Estimates for Measuring Global Growth Appendix 1.2. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects References Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives United States and Canada: How Long Will the Slowdown Last? Western Europe: Can a Sharp Slowdown Be Averted? Advanced Asia: How Resilient Is Growth in Japan to a Global Slowdown? Emerging Asia: Strong Internal Momentum, but Rising Risks from Spillovers Latin America and the Caribbean: Facing a Cold North Wind Emerging Europe: Adjusting to a Rougher External Environment Commonwealth of Independent States: Containing Inflation Remains the Central Challenge Sub-Saharan Africa: Strong Growth Prospects but Risks Remain Middle East: Inflation Is a Growing Concern References Chapter 3. The Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy Developments in Housing Finance The Housing Sector and the Business Cycle Housing Finance and Spillovers from Housing Housing Finance and Housing as a Transmission Channel for Monetary Policy Should Changes in the Housing Cycle Affect the Conduct of Monetary Policy? Conclusions Appendix 3.1. Data and Methodology References Chapter 4. Climate Change and the Global Economy How Will Climate Change Affect Economies? How Can Countries Best Adapt to Climate Change? How Can Countries Effectively and Efficiently Mitigate Climate Change? Conclusions Appendix 4.1. The G-Cubed Model, Baseline Assumptions, and Other Models in the Climate Change Literature References Chapter 5. Globalization, Commodity Prices, and Developing Countries Commodity Prices and Patterns of Integration Globalization and Commodity Price Cycles Explaining the Patterns Conclusions Appendix 5.1. Data and Methodology References Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2008 Statistical Appendix Assumptions What's New Data and Conventions Classification of Countries General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification List of Tables Part A Output (Tables A1–A4) Inflation (Tables A5–A7) Financial Policies (Table A8) Foreign Trade (Table A9) Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13– A15) Flow of Funds (Table A16) Medium–Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17) List of Tables Part B Output (Tables B1–B2) Inflation (Tables B3–B4) Financial Policies (Tables B5–B10) Foreign Trade (Tables B11–B13) Current Account Transactions (Tables B14–B17) Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables B18–B20) External Debt and Debt Service (Tables B21–B25) Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table B26) World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics Boxes Chart Chart Chart Chart Data Data Data Data 1.1 Is There a Credit Crunch? Chart Chart Chart 1.2 Depreciation of the U.S. Dollar: Causes and Consequences Chart 1.3 Multilateral Consultation on Global Imbalances: Progress Report Chart Chart Data Data 1.4 Dollar Depreciation and Commodity Prices Chart Data 1.5 Why Hasn't Oil Supply Responded to Higher Prices? Chart Data 1.6 Oil Price Benchmarks Chart Chart Chart Chart Data Data 2.1 When Does Fiscal Stimulus Work? Chart Chart Data Data 2.2 Petrodollars and Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Chart Chart Chart Chart Data Data Data Data 3.1 Assessing Vulnerabilities to Housing Market Corrections Chart Data 4.1 Rising Car Ownership in Emerging Economies: Implications for Climate Change Chart Data 4.2 South Asia: Illustrative Impact of an Abrupt Climate Shock 4.3 Macroeconomic Policies for Smoother Adjustment to Abrupt Climate Shocks Chart Chart Data Data 4.4 Catastrophe Insurance and Bonds: New Instruments to Hedge Extreme Weather Risks 4.5 Recent Emission-Reduction Policy Initiatives 4.6 Complexities in Designing Domestic Mitigation Policies Chart Data 5.1 How Does the Globalization of Trade and Finance Affect Growth? Theory and Evidence Chart Data 5.2 The Current Commodity Price Boom in Perspective Tables 1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 1.2 Shares of Global GDP, 2007 1.3 Global Oil Demand and Production by Region 1.4 Food, Fuel, and Headline Inflation 2.1 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment 2.2 Advanced Economies: Current Account Positions 2.3 Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 2.4 Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 2.5 Selected Emerging European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 2.6 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 2.7 Selected African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 2.8 Selected Middle Eastern Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 3.1 Institutional Differences in National Mortgage Markets and the Mortgage Market Index 3.2 Abnormal Contributions to GDP Growth Weakness One Year before Recessions 3.3 Features of House Price Cycles 3.4 Forecast Variance Decomposition: Housing Demand Shocks—Average across Countries 3.5 Optimal Coefficients in the Taylor Rule 3.6 Estimates of the Error-Correction Model of Consumption 4.1 Losses in Real GNP, 2040 4.2 Baseline Growth Assumptions 4.3 Carbon-Based Emission Coefficients 4.4 Summary of the Baseline Scenario 4.5 Emission Intensities in the Baseline 4.6 Emission Reductions and Consumption Losses Following a Standardized Carbon Price Shock 4.7 Comparison of Climate Policy Models 5.1 Cross–Sectional Regressions: Overall Trade 5.2 Cross-Sectional Regressions: Commodity Trade, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 5.3 Panel Regressions: Overall Trade 5.4 Panel Regressions: Commodity Trade, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 5.5 Panel Regressions: Institutions and Policies Figures Chart Data 1.1 Global Indicators Chart Data 1.2 Current and Forward-Looking Indicators Chart Data 1.3 Global Inflation Chart Data 1.4 Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity Chart Data 1.5 Developments in Mature Credit Markets Chart Data 1.6 Mature Financial and Housing Market Indicators Chart Data 1.7 External Developments in Selected Advanced Economies Chart Data 1.8 Emerging Economy Financial Conditions Chart Data 1.9 External Developments in Emerging and Developing Economies Chart Data 1.10 Growing Global Role of Emerging and Developing Economies Chart Data 1.11 Global Outlook Chart Data 1.12 Risks to the Global Outlook Chart Data 1.13 Measures of the Output Gap and Capacity Pressures Chart Data 1.14 Current Account Balances and Net Foreign Assets Chart Data 1.15 Two Scenarios for the Global Economy Chart Data 1.16 Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) Exchange Rate Revisions and Global GrowthPurchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) Exchange Rate Revisions and Global Growth Chart Data 1.17 Commodity and Petroleum Prices Chart Data 1.18 World Oil Market Balances Chart Data 1.19 Energy and Metal Prices and Metal Consumption Growth Chart Data 1.20 Recent Developments in Major Food Crops Chart Data 1.21 Macroeconomic Implications of High Commodity Prices Chart Data 2.1 United States: Housing Cycles in Perspective Chart Data 2.2 Western Europe: Tightening Lending Standards Chart Data 2.3 Japan: Will Domestic Demand Be Able to Support Growth? Chart Data 2.4 Emerging Asia: Trade Patterns and Growth Developments Chart Data 2.5 Latin America: Long Road to Stronger Performance Chart Data 2.6 Emerging Europe: Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities on the Rise Chart Data 2.7 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Inflation Pressures Remain the Central Concern Chart Data 2.8 Sub-Saharan Africa: Vulnerability of Commodity Exports to Global Demand Chart Data 2.9 Middle East: Strong Growth, Rising Inflation Chart Data 3.1 Mortgage Debt and Financial Innovation Chart Chart Data 3.2 Correlation of Real House Prices and Real Residential Investment with the Output Gap Chart Data 3.3 Labor Market Characteristics and the Contribution of Residential Investment to the Business Cycle Chart Data 3.4 Mortgage Market Index, Consumption and House Price Correlation, and the Long-Run Marginal Propensity to Consume out of Housing Wealth Chart Data 3.5 Share of Output Variation Explained by Housing Demand Shocks Chart Data 3.6 Correlation between the Shares of Output and Housing Sector Variation Explained by Housing Demand Shocks Chart Data 3.7 Correlation between the Share of Output Variation Explained by Housing Demand Shocks and the Mortgage Market Index Chart 3.8 Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Chart Data 3.9 Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks on Output and Housing Sector Variables in the United States Chart Data 3.10 Elasticity of Real Residential Investment, Real House Prices, and Output to a 100-Basis-Point Increase in Short-Term Interest Rates Chart Data 3.11 Interest Rate Elasticity of Real Residential Investment, Real House Prices, and Output and the Mortgage Market Index Chart Data 3.12 Monetary Policy Counterfactuals Chart Data 3.13 Macroeconomic Model with Housing as Collateral: Responses of Output and Consumption to Shocks for Different Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratios Chart Data 3.14 Macroeconomic Model with Housing as Collateral: Response of Nominal Interest Rates to a Positive Housing Demand Shock and a Negative Financial Shock for Various Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratios Chart Data 4.1 Carbon Dioxide Energy-Related Emissions Chart Data 4.2 Emission Forecasts Chart Data 4.3 Mean GDP Losses at Various Levels of Warming Chart Data 4.4 Damages from 2.5°C Warming by Region Chart Data 4.5 Impact of Warming by Region and Sector Chart Data 4.6 Physical Impact by 2080 Chart Data 4.7 Variation in Estimates of Damages from Climate Change Chart Data 4.8 Weather Derivatives and Catastrophe Bonds Chart Data 4.9 Global Emission Targets and Paths, 1990–2100 Chart Data 4.10 Uniform Carbon Tax, 2013–40 Chart Data 4.11 Total Costs of Mitigation, 2013–40 Chart Data 4.12 Cap-and-Trade System, 2013–40 Chart Data 4.13 International Transfers under the Cap-and-Trade System Chart Data 4.14 Cap-and-Trade System for All Regions Based on Share of World Population, 2013–40 Chart Data 4.15 Global Emissions from Energy Only, 2030 Chart Data 5.1 Trade in Goods and Services Chart Data 5.2 Merchandise Exports of Emerging and Developing Economies Chart Data 5.3 Gross Foreign Capital and Gross Foreign Liabilities Chart Data 5.4 Commodity Prices Chart Data 5.5 Values of Exports of Commodities and Manufactures Chart Data 5.6 Volumes of Exports of Commodities and Manufactures Chart Data 5.7 Patterns of Regional Trade Chart Data 5.8 Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies Chart Data 5.9 Policy and Institutional Environment Chart Data 5.10 Commodity Price Booms Chart Data 5.11 Event Study of the Commodity Terms of Trade, 1970–2007 Chart Data Chart Data 5.12 Explaining the Increase in Integration from the 1980s to the 2000s
	www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/index.htm

¡Ø ÄÚ¸®¾Æ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ±âȹÀçÁ¤ºÎ¿¡¼­ °øÀͼº±âºÎ±Ý´ë»ó´Üü(2006-176È£)·Î ¼±Á¤µÇ¾úÀ¸¹Ç·Î        ¿¬¸»Á¤»ê ¶§ ¼Òµæ°øÁ¦¸¦ ¹ÞÀ¸½Ç ¼ö ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù.