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선진 한국을 위한 정책방향과 과제 :6대 전략분야를 중심으로 |
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우천식, 정재호, 김주훈, 김태종, 박정수, 박 진, 서중해, 임영재, 조병구, 최경수 |
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정치외교연구센터 / 국내정치와 민주주의 |
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참고자료 |
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정책보고서 |
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KDI |
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2007/11/15 |
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제１부 총 론
제1장 연구의 목적, 접근방법 및 주요내용 ··································· 17
제1절 문제인식 ············································································· 17
1. 또 다른 발전의 기로에 선 한국경제 ······································ 17
2. 비전과 전략 수립의 당위성 ··················································· 20
제2절 연구의 목적, 접근방법 및 특징 ··········································· 24
1. 연구의 목적과 기존 관련 보고서 ·········································· 24
2. 연구의 접근방법과 특징 ························································ 27
제3절 보고서의 구성과 주요 내용 ················································· 33
1. 제1부 총론 부분 ··································································· 33
2. 제2부의 정책상론 ·································································· 35
3. 제2부 정책상론의 편제와 기술양식 ······································· 45
제2장 대외 환경 변화와 도전과제 ················································· 46
제1절 세계경제의 변화와 과학기술의 발전 ··································· 46
1. 세계경제의 통합과 국제적 공조화 증대 ································ 46
2. BRICs 및 아시아권 경제권의 부상 ········································ 48
3. 과학기술의 발전과 사회경제적 변화 ····································· 53
제2절 대내 여건 변화와 도전과제 ················································· 55
1. 성장잠재력의 저하 ································································ 55
2. 양극화 및 사회적 긴장의 증대 ·············································· 60
3. 급속한 저출산ㆍ고령화의 진행 ·············································· 65
4. 남북관계 등 안보환경의 변화 ··············································· 68
제3절 미래 연구기관의 장기 전망과 주요 변인 ···························· 69
1. 미래 연구기관의 종합 전망 ··················································· 69
2. 세계경제 장기호황 실현을 위한 전제조건 ····························· 72
제3장 새로운 발전모형 및 정책패러다임의 모색 ························· 79
제1절 한국경제의 현 주소 및 기존 발전패러다임의 한계 ············· 79
1. 선진국에 대한 발전 격차 ······················································ 79
2. 당면문제와 성장을 통한 문제해결방식의 한계 ······················ 81
제2절 새로운 발전패러다임의 모색 ··············································· 85
1. 국가역할 변천의 세계적 추세 ··············································· 85
2. 새로운 정책패러다임으로서의 성장과 복지의 동반발전 모형 88
3. 동반발전 패러다임의 기본구도 ·············································· 91
4. 동반발전 패러다임에서 정부와 재정의 역할 ························· 93
제4장 국가비전과 전략과제 ·························································· 100
제1절 장기 비전과 국가전략 ······················································· 100
제2절 6대 핵심 전략별 주요 실천과제 ········································ 104
1. 성장동력의 확충 ·································································· 104
2. 인적자원의 고도화 ······························································ 108
3. 사회복지체제의 선진화 ························································ 112
4. 사회적 자본의 확충 ····························································· 116
5. 능동적 세계화 ····································································· 120
6. 국가 거버넌스의 개혁 ························································· 124
제3절 6대 핵심전략 간 상호관계 ················································· 127
1. 성장동력의 확충과 여타 전략 ·············································· 128
2. 인적자원의 고도화와 여타 전략 ·········································· 129
3. 사회복지체제의 선진화와 여타 전략 ···································· 129
4. 사회적 자본의 확충과 여타 전략 ········································· 130
5. 능동적 세계화와 여타 전략 ················································· 130
6. 국가 거버넌스의 개혁과 여타 전략 ····································· 131
제4절 대한민국의 미래 모습과 이행경로 ····································· 133
1. 비전의 실행경로 및 미래상 개관 ········································· 133
2. 주요 분야별 미래의 모습과 이행경로 ·································· 135
제２부 각 론
제5장 성장동력의 확충 ·································································· 143
제1절 총 론 ················································································ 143
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 143
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 147
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 154
제2절 글로벌 생산구조의 중심권 진입 ········································ 166
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 166
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 168
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 175
제3절 지역혁신시스템 및 클러스터의 장기적 발전방안 ··············· 179
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 179
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 180
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 183
제4절 R&D 부문의 장기 발전방안 ·············································· 184
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 184
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 190
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 193
제5절 중소․벤처 기업의 성장기여도 제고 ································· 198
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 198
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 199
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 199
제6절 ICT산업의 세계적 선도 지위 강화 ···································· 204
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 204
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 207
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 208
제7절 문화산업 육성을 통한 국가 브랜드파워 강화 ···················· 211
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 211
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 212
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 213
제8절 기업의 효율성 극대화를 위한 시장경제의 정착 ················· 217
1. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 217
2. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 219
제6장 인적자원의 고도화 ······························································ 222
제1절 총 론 ················································································ 222
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 222
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 226
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 230
제2절 학교교육의 질 제고 ··························································· 235
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 235
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 237
3. 정책과제 ·············································································· 240
제3절 대학의 경쟁력 제고 ··························································· 245
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 245
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 247
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 249
제4절 교육기회 격차 해소 ··························································· 252
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 252
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 256
3. 정책방향과 과제 ································································ 259
제5절 고급 인적자원 확충 ··························································· 261
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 261
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 262
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 264
제6절 직업능력개발체제 혁신 ······················································ 267
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 267
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 268
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 270
제7절 잠재인력의 개발 및 활용 ·················································· 272
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 272
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 275
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 278
제7장 사회복지체제의 선진화 ······················································· 283
제1절 총 론 ················································································ 283
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 283
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 291
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 295
제2절 공공부조제도의 장기적 발전방안 ······································ 301
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 301
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 306
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 309
제3절 의료보장과 장기요양 ························································· 314
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 314
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 316
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 319
제4절 공적연금 발전의 장기비전 ················································· 324
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 324
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 326
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 328
제5절 육아지원정책 발전방향 ······················································ 334
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 334
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 336
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 336
제6절 주거복지정책의 장기발전방향 ············································ 339
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 339
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 343
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 344
제8장 능동적 세계화 ····································································· 348
제1절 총 론 ················································································ 348
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 348
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 351
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 353
제2절 동북아 경제협력 추진 ······················································· 356
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 356
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 357
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 358
제3절 글로벌 네트워킹 촉진 ······················································· 360
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 360
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 362
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 363
제4절 국제협력 강화 ··································································· 371
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 371
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 372
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 373
제5절 제도 및 관행의 국제표준화 ··············································· 376
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 376
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 379
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 380
제6절 남북한 공동번영의 실현 ···················································· 384
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 384
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 385
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 387
제7절 국가 이미지 제고 ······························································ 392
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 392
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 393
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 394
제9장 사회적 자본의 확충 ···························································· 399
제1절 총 론 ················································································ 399
1. 논의의 목적과 개요 ····························································· 399
2. 사회적 자본의 개념, 효과 및 시대적 의의 ·························· 400
3. 공동체, 사회적 자본의 양면성 및 정책적 의제 ···················· 405
4. 우리나라 사회적 자본의 현황, 여건과 전망 ························· 409
5. 정책방향과 제약요인 ··························································· 418
제2절 정부 및 공적 제도에 대한 신뢰도 제고 ···························· 421
1. 논의의 목적과 개요 ····························································· 421
2. 정부신뢰에 대한 전망 ························································· 424
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 425
제3절 공동체를 통한 참여 활성화 ··············································· 430
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 430
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 436
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 439
제4절 성숙한 시민의식 함양 ······················································· 442
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 442
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 444
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 445
제5절 사회적 갈등의 해소 ··························································· 449
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 449
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 453
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 455
제6절 직업현장에서의 사회적 자본 확충 ····································· 457
1. 현황 및 문제점 ··································································· 457
2. 여건 및 전망 ······································································· 461
3. 정책방향과 과제 ·································································· 463
제10장 국가 거버넌스의 개혁 ······················································· 465
제1절 총 론 ················································································ 465
1. 거버넌스 개혁의 의미 ························································· 465
2. 국제사회와 국가 거버넌스 ··················································· 466
3. 장기 비전을 위한 거버넌스 개혁의 핵심요소 ······················ 471
제2절 공공갈등 해결과 국가 거버넌스 문제의 장기 비전 ············ 475
1. 거버넌스와 공공갈등의 관계 ··············································· 475
2. 한국의 공공갈등 해결능력 향상에 대한 장기 비전 ·············· 478
3. 공공갈등 해결능력 향상을 위한 전략적 선택 ······················ 486
4. 한국의 공공갈등 해결능력 향상을 위한 정책대안 ··············· 494
제3절 국가 거버넌스 구조 개선과 분권의 제도화 ······················· 495
1. 민주주의의 심화와 국가경쟁력의 강화 ································ 496
2. 지방분권의 이론적 근거 ······················································ 499
3. 지방분권 선진국의 함의 ······················································ 503
4. 결론 및 정책제안 ································································ 507
참고문헌 ··························································································· 512
표 목 차
<표 1- 1> 주요 국가들의 혁신전략 및 여건 ············································· 21
<표 1- 2> 우리나라 장기발전전략에 관한 최근의 주요 작업/보고서 ········ 25
<표 2- 1> 우리나라 잠재성장률(1982~2030년) 추정 및 전망 결과 ············ 56
<표 2- 2> 한국경제의 장기 잠재성장률 전망 ··········································· 56
<표 2- 3> 잠재성장률 변화추세와 향후 전망 ··········································· 57
<표 2- 4> 잠재성장률의 주요 변동요인 ··················································· 58
<표 2- 5> 세계 주요 경제의 연평균성장률 변화 ······································ 58
<표 2- 6> 소득 불평등도 추이 ································································· 62
<표 2- 7> 인구고령화 속도의 국제비교 ··················································· 66
<표 2- 8> NIC가 예측한 2020년 세계의 모습 ·········································· 70
<표 2- 9> AC/UNU가 보는 15대 지구촌 당면과제 ··································· 71
<표 2-10> 장기적인 경제적-역동성의 5대 요인 ········································ 72
<표 2-11> 주요 OECD 국가의 소득분배 변화 추세 ·································· 74
<표 3- 1> 외환위기 전후의 일자리 창출효과 ··········································· 83
<표 3- 2> 국가발전전략의 패러다임 전환 ················································ 92
<표 4- 1> SWOT 분석: 성장동력의 확충 ················································ 104
<표 4- 2> SWOT 분석: 인적자원의 고도화 ············································ 108
<표 4- 3> SWOT 분석: 사회복지체제의 선진화 ······································ 112
<표 4- 4> SWOT 분석: 사회적 자본의 확충 ··········································· 116
<표 4- 5> SWOT 분석: 능동적 세계화 ··················································· 120
<표 4- 6> SWOT 분석: 국가 거버넌스의 개혁 ······································· 124
<표 4- 7> 잠재성장률 전망(비전 2030) ··················································· 135
<표 5- 1> 우리 경제의 주요 여건 ·························································· 145
<표 5- 2> 산업생산구조의 장기변화 추이: 대분류 기준 ························· 152
<표 5- 3> 제조업의 생산구조 전망 ························································ 153
<표 5- 4> 서비스업의 생산구조 전망 ····················································· 154
<표 5- 5> 선진국 대비 기술경쟁력 수준 ················································ 159
<표 5- 6> 에너지원단위 국제비교(2003년) ·············································· 166
<표 5- 7> 주요국의 비임금근로자 및 서비스업 부문 취업자 비율(2002년) 167
<표 5- 8> 노동생산성 국제비교(2003년) ················································· 173
<표 5- 9> 서비스산업 고용구조의 국제비교(2003년) ······························· 174
<표 5-10> 사회서비스업 취업자 비중의 국제비교 ··································· 174
<표 5-11> 수도권과 대전의 연구개발기관 현황(2002년) ·························· 179
<표 5-12> 수도권과 대전의 연구개발활동 변화 추이 ······························ 180
<표 5-13> 대학 사용 연구비의 성격별 비중 국제비교 ···························· 187
<표 5-14> 공공연구기관의 기술이전․사업화 실적 국제비교 ·················· 188
<표 5-15> 주요국 정부의 중소기업 금융지원의 자금형태별 구성 비교 ··· 189
<표 5-16> 주요국의 R&D 투자 목표 ······················································ 191
<표 5-17> 중소기업의 국민경제 비중 ····················································· 198
<표 5-18> 정보통신 고이용산업과 저이용산업의 생산성 추이 ················ 205
<표 5-19> 정보통신산업의 GDP 성장 기여도 전망 ································· 207
<표 5-20> 국내 IT산업의 부문별 평균 성장률 추이(1991~2004년) ··········· 208
<표 5-21> 디지털 컨버전스의 사회적 파급효과 ······································ 209
<표 5-22> 한국과 미국의 문화산업 비중 비교 ········································ 213
<표 5-23> 문화산업의 경제적 파급효과 ·················································· 213
<표 6- 1> 초․중등교육 학교급별 교육환경 ··········································· 236
<표 6- 2> 사교육비 규모의 변화(1994~2003년) ······································· 236
<표 6- 3> 전체 예산 대비 정부부담 공교육비(이전지출 포함)의
국제비교(2002년) ···································································· 240
<표 6- 4> 초․중등교육 학교급별 1인당 GDP 대비 학생 1인당
공교육비 ················································································ 240
<표 6- 5> GDP 대비 공교육비의 국제비교 ············································· 253
<표 6- 6> 초․중등 및 고등교육의 수익자 부담 ···································· 254
<표 6- 7> 교육세 현황 ··········································································· 255
<표 6- 8> 저소득층 대학생에 대한 학자금 지원 현황 ·························· 257
<표 6- 9> 여성 및 고령자의 경활참가율 및 유휴인력 비율 ·················· 273
<표 6-10> 여성경제활동참가율의 국가간 비교 ········································ 273
<표 6-11> 우리나라 연령계층별 인구 구성비 추이 ································· 276
<표 6-12> 기간별 평균 성장률 추이(2006~2050년) ·································· 277
<표 7- 1> 총사회지출 및 순사회지출 규모 비교 ···································· 284
<표 7- 2> 소득보장 급여의 빈곤완화효과 ·············································· 302
<표 7- 3> 가구유형에 따른 빈곤의 규모와 빈곤완화효과 ······················· 302
<표 7- 4> 65세 이상 노인의 공적연금 수급현황(2003년 12월) ················ 307
<표 7- 5> 종사자 지위별 소득자료 보유율 ············································· 308
<표 7- 6> 의료비 증가 추이 ·································································· 314
<표 7- 7> 미국과 영국의 의료서비스 구조 비교 ···································· 317
<표 7- 8> 각국의 민간 및 공공의료시설 비율(병상기준) ························ 318
<표 7- 9> 국가별 민간의료보험 가입규모 ·············································· 321
<표 7-10> 특수직역연금 가입자 현황(2003년 12월 현재) ························ 326
<표 7-11> 총부과대상소득 대비 총급여지출액 비율 변화 ······················· 327
<표 7-12> 65~69세 노인가구 소득구성의 국가 비교 ····························· 327
<표 7-13> OECD 국가의 영유아 보육․교육비용 정부부담 현황 ············ 335
<표 8- 1> 남북한의 1인당 GNI 비율 ······················································ 351
<표 8- 2> 주요국의 직접투자 유출입의 상대적 중요성 ·························· 361
<표 8- 3> 한국의 해외투자(2004년) ························································ 362
<표 8- 4> 한국 및 주요국의 관광산업 주요 지표 ··································· 365
<표 8- 5> EU의 자동차 CO₂배출규제와 한 ․ 일의 대응 ······················· 379
<표 8- 6> IMD의 국가별 문화 및 가치체계 경쟁력 평가지표 ················ 392
<표 8- 7> 주요 국가의 국가 이미지 ······················································· 393
<표 8- 8> 한국에 대한 이미지 변화 ······················································· 394
<표 8- 9> 유관기관 국제교류 활동범위 ·················································· 395
<표 8-10> 주요 외국의 문화홍보기관 현황 ············································· 396
<표 8-11> 주요 국가 이미지 홍보부처 ··················································· 397
<표 9- 1> 국가별 사회적 자본 수준 ······················································· 410
<표 9- 2> IMD 평가(59개국) ·································································· 410
<표 9- 3> 제도권 기관에 대한 한국과 미국의 신뢰도 추이 ··················· 422
<표 9- 4> 폐쇄적 공동체와 사이버 공동체 비교 ···································· 435
<표 9- 5> 시민의식 수준 측정에서 한국과 IEA 국제 평균 정답비율
비교 ······················································································· 443
<표 9- 6> 갈등으로 인한 주요 국책사업 공사중단 기간 및
사업 철회 시 손실 규모 ························································ 452
<표 9- 7> 선진국의 갈등관리기본법 도입사례 ········································ 456
<표 9- 8> 기업경영 효율성 지수 변화 추이(2001~05년) ························· 458
<표 9- 9> 기업 조직에서의 사회적 자본의 기능 ···································· 459
<표 9-10> 최근 사회공헌 지출비용 추이 ················································ 463
<표 10-1> 영역별 거버넌스 관련 국제비교지표 내용 ······························· 469
<표 10-2> 미국의 공공갈등 해결능력의 진화단계 ···································· 481 |
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※ 코리아연구원은 기획재정부에서 공익성기부금대상단체(2006-176호)로 선정되었으므로
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::: 코리아연구원 (KNSI : 새로운 코리아구상을 위한 연구원) :::
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