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중국의 외환정책과 국제통화질서: 위안화의 절상과 국제화를 중심으로

조종화 외

정치외교연구센터 / 한반도와 중국

참고자료

정책보고서

KIEP

2010/12/30

서 언 ·········································································································· 5
국문요약 ···································································································· 8
제1장 서 론 ···························································································· 19
제2장 중국의 환율정책 변화와 위안화의 변동 ······························ 23
1. 위안화 문제 대두의 배경 ···································································· 24
가. 중국경제의 부상 ············································································ 24
나. 글로벌 불균형 문제 심화 ······························································· 30
다. 정치적ㆍ외교적 문제: 국제사회의 중국 견제 ·································· 34
2. 중국의 환율정책 변화와 환율변동 추이 ················································ 36
가. 2010년 6월 환율정책 변화의 내용 ················································· 36
나. 정책변화 이후 환율변동 추이 ························································ 38
다. 통화바스켓제도 시행 여부 추정 ····················································· 41
3. 소결 ··································································································· 50
제3장 중국의 환율정책 관련 고려사항 ············································ 53
1. 대외적 고려 ························································································ 55
가. 미국의 입장과 고려사항 ································································ 55
나. 유럽의 입장 ·················································································· 60
다. 1980년대 후반 일본의 교훈 ··························································· 62
라. 세계적 차원의 고려 ······································································· 65
2. 대내적 고려 ························································································ 66
가. 중국의 입장 ·················································································· 66
나. 불태화의 한계와 인플레이션 압력 ·················································· 68
다. 수출에 미치는 영향 ······································································· 69
라. 산업구조 조정과 수출ㆍ내수 간 자원배분 ······································· 71
3. 소결 ··································································································· 76
제4장 중국과 미국의 정책적 선택 ···················································· 79
1. 글로벌 불균형 축소의 필요성 ······························································ 80
2. 미국의 정책적 선택 ············································································· 84
가. 현재의 압박전략 ············································································ 84
나. 일방적 관세부과 ············································································ 91
다. 국제기구 등을 통한 압력 ······························································· 94
라. 국내불균형 해소 노력 ···································································· 97
3. 중국의 정책적 선택 ············································································· 99
가. 점진적인 위안화 절상 ···································································· 99
나. 신속하고 대폭적인 위안화 절상 ···················································· 104
다. 국내소비 촉진 ············································································· 111
라. 시장개방 확대 ············································································· 118
4. 소결 ································································································· 120
제5장 위안화의 국제화와 국제통화질서에의 시사점 ··················· 127
1. 위안화 국제화의 진행과정과 현위치 ··················································· 128
가. 위안화의 국제화 추진과 그에 따른 장단점 ···································· 128
나. 위안화 국제화 관련 중국의 제도 변화 ·········································· 130
다. 위안화 국제화의 현위치 ······························································· 137
2. 위안화 국제화의 가능성과 전망 ························································· 139
가. 위안화 국제화의 실현 가능성 ······················································· 139
나. 위안화 국제화의 전망 ·································································· 141
3. 국제통화질서에의 시사점 ··································································· 146
4. 동아시아 통화협력에 대한 시사점 ······················································ 150
제6장 정책 시사점 ·············································································· 155
1. 미ㆍ중 환율갈등의 전개방향 ······························································ 156
2. 우리 경제에 주는 시사점 ··································································· 157
가. 원ㆍ위안 환율변동성 확대에 대한 대비 ········································ 157
나. 중국보유 외환의 국내유입에 대한 대비 ········································ 159
다. 원화 국제화에 대한 시사점 ·························································· 161
참고문헌 ································································································ 164
Executive Summary ·············································································· 173

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